When fuel prices jump, it always feels as if the ground is moving under the wheels of our industry. Diesel eats into margins, kerosene reshapes networks overnight, and every planning meeting starts with the same question. How long will this last? Yet if we zoom out, road and air transport in Europe have been here before. Several times.
Taqsima 01The first wake up call
Our story starts in the early 1970s. European transport was still running on the assumption that fuel would be abundant and cheap. Then, in 1973, the Yom Kippur War and the Arab oil embargo changed everything. Oil prices more than doubled within months and suddenly there were Sunday driving bans, car free days and queues at petrol stations across Western Europe.
For road hauliers and shippers this was a brutal awakening. Fuel, which had always been just another line item, became the central cost driver. Companies began to look harder at empty kilometres. Planners squeezed more out of every route. Fleet renewal was no longer just about reliability, but about fuel economy per tonne kilometre. From that point on, fuel efficiency and network design became strategic topics, not only technical details.
Taqsima 02When history rhymed again
The pattern repeated at the end of the 1970s. The Iranian Revolution and the outbreak of the Iran Iraq war removed large volumes of oil from the market. Prices spiked again. The details were different, the message was not. Companies that had already started to modernise their fleets and trim waste were better positioned. Others were forced to catch up quickly. Governments, too, had to react: policies that once seemed temporary became part of a new toolbox for handling energy stress, from fuel taxes and subsidies to conservation campaigns.
Taqsima 03Fast forward to the 1990s and 2000s
In 1990, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait sent oil prices surging once more. The spike was shorter, but the reaction was familiar. Airlines cut capacity and adjusted fares. Road transport operators tightened cost control and revisited surcharges. Then came the 2000s. Global demand, financial speculation and rising tensions in producing regions drove prices upward again, with a peak around 2008.
This time, the shock collided with something else: digital tools were finally mature enough to change how fleets were managed. Telematics moved from nice gadget to must have. Route optimisation software helped cut detours and idle time. Real time data allowed dispatchers to fill trucks more intelligently, avoid congested bottlenecks and reduce fuel burn on each lane. Some flows started to move to rail and intermodal options, especially on predictable long haul corridors.
Taqsima 042022 and beyond: a more complex world
The most recent chapter starts in 2022, with a mix of post Covid recovery and geopolitical conflict. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, combined with existing tensions in global energy markets and later flashpoints around the Strait of Hormuz, sent gas, oil and refined products on another rollercoaster. Diesel became more expensive and volatile. Kerosene costs spiked. Road hauliers watched their cost base jump while still dealing with driver shortages and growing regulatory demands.
Taqsima 05What always happens after the shock
If we step back from the timeline and look at the pattern, three things tend to happen after every major energy shock.
1. The sector becomes more efficient
In the 1970s, efficiency meant more aerodynamic trucks and engines that could do more with each litre. Later, it meant telematics, advanced planning and fuel efficient driving. Today, it increasingly means choosing vehicle and mode combinations that simply burn less energy per tonne kilometre, or switching part of the fleet to technologies that use energy differently, like battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell trucks on suitable routes.
2. Networks get redesigned
When fuel is cheap and stable, it is easy to accept suboptimal routing, many depots, and long detours because that is how it has always been done. Under price pressure, companies start to question every leg: which flows can move to rail, short sea or combined transport, which depots can be consolidated, which round trips can be rethought to eliminate empty runs.
3. Contracts change
Initially, many carriers bear the shock alone. Over time, the industry tends to move towards more transparent risk sharing. Fuel surcharges become the norm instead of the exception. Tariffs are linked to indices. Contract durations shorten. The conversation between shippers and carriers shifts from price once a year to how do we share a moving cost base fairly.
Taqsima 06What this history suggests for us now
So what does this long story mean for a fleet manager in 2026, or for a shipper trying to plan budgets while diesel and kerosene still feel unpredictable?
One insight is that energy shocks are not black swans. They are recurring features of the landscape. Treating them as rare exceptions makes it harder to prepare. Seeing them as cyclical events makes it easier to justify investment in resilience: in better data, in more flexible contracts, and in alternative modes and technologies.
Another insight is that the best responses tend to be those that would make sense even if prices were stable. A route that uses fewer kilometres and has fewer empty legs is good business in any scenario. A driver who knows how to save fuel will still save it next year. A network with serious intermodal options will still be more resilient when the next geopolitical shock hits.