May 2026: Road Transport. What Changed and Why It Matters

European road freight entered May carrying every structural weight that April left behind, plus a few new ones. Fuel subsidies are about to disappear. Toll costs are climbing. Phantom carrier fraud has evolved to the insurance industry's fastest-growing loss category. And the driver shortage just got its first serious legislative answer from Berlin in years. Five things competed for attention. All five matter.

Časť 01**Fuel costs: the subsidy is expiring, and freight rates will feel it**

Germany's fuel tax relief (Tankrabatt), introduced in May 2026 as a response to rising prices following geopolitical disruption, is scheduled to end on 1 July 2026. The measure cut energy tax on diesel by 14.04 cents per litre, translating to a real-terms saving of roughly 16.7 cents per litre including VAT effects. Federal Transport Minister Patrick Schneider (CDU) has said he sees little room for an extension; the fiscal cost stands at up to €1.6 billion.

EU diesel prices already surged from €1.56 per litre at end-Q4 2025 to €1.96 per litre by the end of Q1 2026, a 26% increase driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel. With the April 2026 EU average running 10% higher still than March, the trajectory as the subsidy expires is not reassuring for hauliers operating thin margins. [7]

Transporeon's Q2 2026 analysis adds a structural dimension: truck toll costs across Europe have risen by an average of 43% over the past five years, with Switzerland now carrying a 28% toll share of total transport costs, Austria and Hungary at 22%, and Germany at 16%. The Netherlands and Romania are adding new toll systems in Q3 2026. The E-truck exemption in Germany (zero Autobahn toll through mid-2031) creates a real cost advantage in high-toll corridors, but that conversion takes capital investment most SME carriers cannot currently access.

IRU , Upply and TransportIntelligence Q1 2026 data confirms: contract rates reached 140.1 index points in Q1, up 3.2 points quarter-on-quarter and 8.9 points year-on-year. Spot rates fell to 132.3, down 2.8 points.

Časť 02Insolvencies: the statistics paint a more positive, the underlying stress is not

The FalkenSteg Q1 2026 Insolvency Report recorded 94 corporate insolvencies (€10M+ revenue) in Q1, down 35% versus Q4 2025 and 24% below the prior-year period. That sounds like improvement. Falkensteg reads it as a statistical echo: Q4 2025 saw an unusual cluster of filings; Q1 is recovering from that peak, not from a genuine economic turn. Crucially, the current quarterly figure of 94 still exceeds the five-year historical average of 67 by 40%. [8]

Across all revenue sizes, insolvencies rose to 5,594 cases, a 7.2% increase versus Q1 2025. In logistics specifically, Falkensteg recorded seven large-company insolvencies in Q1 2026, stable versus prior quarters, but that stability follows a year in which the sector's large-company insolvency rate rose 5.6% (itself following a full doubling in 2024). The medium-term direction has not reversed. [8]

For carriers operating in this environment, the combination of rising fuel costs post-subsidy, ongoing toll increases, and a weakening spot market creates a convergence of pressures that historically precedes a further wave of insolvency filings.

Časť 03Driver shortage: the driving licence reform finally moves

Germany's federal cabinet approved a package of driving licence reforms in May 2026, with the target of new rules entering into force by early 2027. The reform allows driving schools to offer more digital teaching, removes fixed quotas for specialist driving sessions (night driving, motorway), and shortens the practical examination. The theory question catalogue, currently more than 1,100 questions, is to be reduced by one third.

The explicit rationale from Transport Minister Mr. Schnieder is cost reduction:

“a full driving licence currently costs several thousand euros, which he described as a structural access barrier to mobility and, by implication, to the truck driver profession. LOGISTIK HEUTE Edition reported Schnieder's related ambition to accelerate the pathway specifically for professional HGV drivers. The practical effect on driver supply will take years to materialise, but the political signal is the clearest statement on driver supply reform Germany has produced in this cycle.”

Časť 04Logistics has become a strategic factor for Germany’s competitiveness

The United Interim Wirtschaftsreport 2026, based on responses from 550 interim managers, formally ranks logistics and transport as central to Germany's industrial competitiveness, cited by 56% of respondents, second only to mechanical engineering at 88%. The report notes that AI is expected to drive transformation faster in logistics than in most other sectors, with route optimisation, demand forecasting and inventory management as the primary application areas.

The implication: logistics is no longer a support function in German industrial strategy. It is a competitive input. That framing should change how companies inside the sector communicate their value, and how they invest not only in efficiency but also in resilience and security.

Časť 05Data and the modern truck: your fleet is watching… and so is the OEM

A May 2026 episode of the VerkehrsRundschau podcast raised a regulatory question that most fleet operators have not yet fully addressed. A modern HGV carries between 100 and 200 sensors. Those sensors generate driver profiles, location data, driving times, violations, working-time records, subcontractor data, and customer delivery information, and in most cases, that data stream goes first to the OEM's servers ( Volvo Group , Scania Group , MAN, Mercedes-Benz AG , DAF Trucks NV ), not to the fleet operator.

The GDPR compliance question this raises: who controls the data, who can access it, who has the right to demand deletion. It is legally unsettled, particularly when OEM servers are located in Sweden, the United States, or the Netherlands, outside the fleet operator's direct control. Data protection expert Michael Rohrlich , speaking in the podcast, identifies documentation of data flows and proactive handling of driver access and deletion requests as the two most urgent priorities.

We, at Trusted Carrier Logistik GmbH , treat data processing and storage extremely seriously and this is why we took a decision to build all our operations only on European providers and data is being collected and stored in Europe only.

Časť 06Focus Article: Phantom carrier fraud is becoming an insurer issue

The risk insurers are already repricing... The numbers have moved… FAST

At the beginning of 2022, Klaus Baier (DESA.EU / FUMO Solutions GmbH ) tracked 80 documented phantom carrier cases across Europe. By 2024, that number reached 266, with 202 of them recorded in just the first four months of the year. Germany is the sharpest example: the country logged 88 cases in the first seven months of 2025 alone, matching the entire full-year 2024 total, while the average loss per incident climbed from roughly €130,000 to nearly €200,000. For broader context, the German Insurance Association ( GDV Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft e.V. ) estimates that traditional cargo theft runs to €1.3 billion annually across the country. Phantom carrier fraud is catching up. [2]

Compare that with 2023, when the GDV-affiliated Logistik-Initiative Hamburg put the phantom carrier damage figure at around €5.1 million for Germany. By 2025, that figure had jumped to approximately €35 million, a nearly sevenfold increase in two years. The trajectory is not a blip; it is a structural shift in how organised crime is engaging with logistics. [3]

How it actually works: two attack patterns

Experts speaking at the Logistik-Initiative Hamburg's focus:on event in March 2026 described two distinct methods:[3]

What both variants exploit is the same gap: weak identity verification before the load assignment is made. As Klaus Baier noted in the Verkehrsrundschau podcast on phantom carriers, prevention must begin before the contract is awarded, not after the truck has left the yard. [4]

The TT Club / BSI 2025 report confirms it is global, and evolving.

The April 2026 joint report from TT Club and BSI Consulting documents how criminal networks have moved from opportunistic attack to intelligence-led, digitally-enabled fraud. Trucks remain the dominant target globally, accounting for roughly 70% of all incidents, with more than one in five incidents (22%) involving insider cooperation. Germany ranked among the top countries worldwide for recorded cargo theft incidents, alongside Brazil, Mexico, India, the United States and others.

In Europe, Germany (27% of incidents), Italy (13%), the United Kingdom (9%), France (6%) and Spain (6%) led the regional count. [5]

What freight exchanges are doing and where the gap still sits

Platforms like Alpega now operate a four-stage identity verification for new members: company form, documentation (licence + insurance), independent verification, and validation before market access. With 85,000 verified users and 350,000 freight offers per day, the process provides a meaningful filter. Yet the Eurodebt.eu analysis makes an important legal point:

That is the gap fraudsters exploit. Verification is a timestamp, not a guarantee. Especially, when provided documents are the only verification source, and we all know they can and are being faked or stolen.

The insurer are revaluating their risk.

Michael Karschau from Allianz Esa , speaking at the Hamburg focus:on event, noted that insurers are actively re-evaluating their exposure. Given the sharp increase in loss totals, the introduction of deductibles specifically for phantom carrier damage is described as "not unlikely." That is insurance language for: expect it. Companies that have not invested in carrier verification processes will likely see this cost materialise in their premiums before year-end. [3]

The AHK Czech Republic has already signaled the urgency: in May 2026 it described phantom carriers as "one of the most frequent causes of loss in road freight transport in recent years," causing damages "amounting to hundreds of thousands of euros to cargo owners, freight forwarders, and insurers alike.” [4]

We’ve conducted a market research in May on how the insurers’ new position is accepted by carriers in different parts of Europe. It is surprisingly shocking how the results different between Eastern and Western Europe. The same raising risk and problem is being perceived with the different level of urgency. You can read more about the outcome of our research in the article.

But let’s look on how we can reduce the raising problem and move more into a proactively preventive mode moving away from a reactive mode step by step. Drawing on guidance from multiple expert sources, including the Verkehrsrundschau workshop on phantom carrier fraud prevention here are some recommendations: [4]

• Before assignment: Verify email domain, website age, and company registration independently. A quick cross-check between the contact email and the registered company address catches the majority of basic spoofing attempts. CarrierCheck has a solution for this.
• Licence check: Confirm the EU transport licence against the official register. not the document the carrier sends you. TrustedCarrier.net automated this process and made it most secured in the market.
• Insurance verification: Call the insurer directly. Do not rely on a PDF. No time for calling? This is why TrustedCarrier.net also invested quite some time in automation of this crucial part.
• VIN-based dispatch: Where possible, confirm the Vehicle Identification Number of the truck picking up the load, not just the plate, which can be cloned in hours.
• Load collection confirmation: A real-time photo of the driver's ID at collection, cross-checked against the pre-registered carrier data, adds a final physical layer. Wave-X has an interesting case studies how this is working.

The recommendation across all expert voices is consistent:

“The check has to happen before the load moves, not after.”

Five Things Worth Your Time

• TT Club / BSI 2025 Cargo Theft Report. Full report available at https://www.bsigroup.com/en-US/insights-and-media/media-center/press-releases/2026/april/tt-club-and-bsi-report-rise-in-cargo-theft-as-criminal-tactics-evolve/
• Verkehrsrundschau Podcast: Phantomfrachtführer und wie man sich schützt. Klaus Baier (FUMO) and Anja Ludwig (KRAVAG) on the mechanics of phantom carrier fraud and the prevention framework: https://verkehrsrundschau.podigee.io/349-345-phantomfrachtfuhrer-und-wie-man-sich-schutzt
• Transporeon: Lkw-Maut treibt Transportkosten in Europa. The 43% toll cost increase story and what it means for fleet electrification decisions: https://www.verkehrsrundschau.de/nachrichten/transport-logistik/transporeon-lkw-maut-treibt-transportkosten-in-europa-3805265
• Hamburgisch: Phantomfrachtführer - die wachsende Bedrohung der Lieferkette. Allianz Esa's perspective on insurance exposure and why deductibles may be coming: https://www.hamburg-logistik.net/blog/urbane-logistik-transport-mobilitaet/phantomfrachtfuehrer-die-wachsende-bedrohung-der-lieferkette/
• United Interim Wirtschaftsreport 2026: Warum Logistik zentral für Deutschlands Industrie ist. The strategic repositioning of logistics in Germany's industrial narrative: https://www.verkehrsrundschau.de/nachrichten/transport-logistik/studie-warum-logistik-zentral-fuer-deutschlands-industrie-ist-3805199

Časť 07May at Trusted Carrier

This month, our CEO Mr. Toni was featured in BGL Magazine, the flagship publication of the German Federal Association for Road Haulage, Logistics and Disposal, in an article focused on Trusted Carrier's background and the banking experience Mr. Toni brings to logistics fraud prevention.

“For a company built at the intersection of finance-grade identity verification and road freight, that profile is a meaningful signal of where the conversation on carrier trust is heading.”

Mr. Toni also participated in the Transfrigoroute Deutschland Jahreshauptversammlung 2026 in Osnabrück (7–8 May) and in a Branchendialogue Automobil round table. Both conversations reinforced what the data confirms: the industry is actively rethinking who it trusts with a load, and the demand for structured verification is no longer theoretical. [10]

Our Head of Marketing & PR, Julia Katharina Größlhuber attended the Schunck Group webinar on phantom carriers which also proved the importance of this topic for all actors of the logistics industry.

Časť 08Where to Meet Us Next

TAPA EMEA Conference. 10 - 11 June 2026

The Transported Asset Protection Association's annual EMEA event is the most concentrated gathering of cargo security, fraud prevention, and supply chain risk professionals in the European calendar. Trusted Carrier will be there.

“If you want to discuss carrier verification, phantom carrier prevention, or how the banking level trust infrastructure works in practice for logistics, book a meeting in advance:”

👉 https://trustedcarrier.net/contact

Trusted Carrier Logistik GmbH builds the identity and verification infrastructure that makes road freight trustworthy. www.trustedcarrier.net